As consumer confidence in the United States fell to the lowest level in more than two years, the market is worried that the demand for rubber used to manufacture tires may decline. Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) rubber ** fell from a three-week high on the 31st. TOCOM February Rubber ** ended the day unchanged at 375.3 yen/kg (approximately US$4,898/metric ton). The ** contract rose to 379 yen per kilogram during the session, hitting a record high since August 8. The ** contract fell 2.9% in August.
Crude oil ** fell, or will hit the biggest monthly decline in May, as signs show that the developed countries economy has softened. In the United States, consumer confidence in August fell to the lowest level since April 2009, and European consumer confidence in August was the largest since December 2008. Analysts said that the rubber market sentiment was weighed down by the uncertainty of the global economy, as uncertainty may weaken rubber demand. The earlier rise in rubber prices was due to concerns about rains in Thailand or restrictions on the supply of rubber.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries stated that its member countries' rubber production in the third quarter increased by 3.3% to 2.77 million tons, and the output in the same period last year increased by 12.1%. According to the association, the increase in supply in the first and second quarters was 10.5% and 4.9%, respectively. The Japan Rubber Trade Association said on August 30th that the inventory of natural rubber in Japanese warehouses rose by 33.5% to 8,623 metric tons on August 20th compared to ten days ago. The Thai Rubber Institute said that the Thai rubber spot price rose by 0.5% to THB 141 (US$4.70)/kg on the 31st.
Shanghai natural rubber ** oscillated up on the 31st. The main contract 1201 contract closed at 34,240 yuan / ton, up 360 yuan. The sign of the Fed’s introduction of quantitative easing policy has become increasingly evident, which has overshadowed the downturn in consumer confidence. However, the weather continues to help supply rise and it is difficult for the market to form long-term gains. However, the downstream will usher in the peak season of gold, silver and silver car consumption. There will still be room for growth in the future. Overnight crude oil was flat, and the Japanese rubber highs fell. It is expected that Hujiao will face a pressure area of 34000-34500 in the near future and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through.
In terms of spot, the domestic Yunnan quotation rose to 34,100 yuan/ton. CRF China's main port STR20 offer rose to 4780 US dollars / ton. The STR20 withdrawal price in the bonded zone rose to around US$4,780/tonne. The enthusiasm of traders is not high, and prices continue to rise. SBR rubber Sinopec SBR1500 offer stable at 30,600 yuan / ton, the market price rose to 30,800 yuan / ton. The quoted price of BR-9000 oil in Styrofoam rubber was stable at 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market price rose to 33,100 yuan/ton.
May 21, 2019
